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Good Monday morning!

In today’s Daily Kickoff, we preview this week’s meetings in Israel between senior Israeli officials and Vice President JD Vance, White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and spotlight the upcoming races that will pit extremist candidates against the mainstream. We talk to Rep. Tom Suozzi about support for Israel within the Democratic Party, and report on concerns voiced by the American Jewish Committee over New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani’s rhetoric toward Jews and Israelis.

Today’s Daily Kickoff was curated by Jewish Insider Executive Editor Melissa Weiss and Israel Editor Tamara Zieve with assists from Marc Rod and Danielle Cohen-Kanik. Have a tip? Email us here.

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Last Friday, we laid out how American Jewry is facing a fork in the road in the aftermath of the Gaza war and release of hostages, and that the coming months will be crucial in assessing whether Jews will experience a renewed period of normalcy or whether the rising tide of anti-Israel sentiment and antisemitism will continue unabated. 

There are a number of upcoming key elections that will test the power of the mainstream against extremist forces. Here are the developments we’ll be watching most closely:

Will Zohran Mamdani win a majority of the New York City vote, and how will he govern if elected as mayor? Right now, without any surge in funding and organization among anti-Mamdani forces in Gotham, it’s looking very likely that the far-left candidate will prevail. But polls still show him consistently under 50%, without gaining any real momentum since winning the Democratic primary. And half of the six most recent public polls in the race (as tracked by RealClearPolitics) show the anti-Mamdani candidates collectively winning more of the vote than the front-runner. This race doesn’t at all look like a mandate for the far left.

If Mamdani wins, the next big question is whether he’ll govern more pragmatically than his past record would suggest. Will he try to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits New York City, as the candidate has consistently said he would do on the campaign trail? Will he threaten the tax-exempt status of Jewish groups because they support Israel? Will he reappoint Jessica Tisch, the effective NYPD chief, as a signal of his willingness to moderate?

He’s been wooing business leaders and working to spin reporters that he’s not as ideological as his political career suggests, but that may be more wishful thinking than anything based on a careful scrutiny of his comments and record.

Will Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) or Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) receive a serious primary challenge? Massie and Greene are the two members of the small but loud faction of the anti-Israel and increasingly antisemitic crowd among House Republicans. Not coincidentally, they also are the two Republicans that are most antagonistic toward President Donald Trump — from calling for a release of the government files on Jeffrey Epstein to, in Greene’s case, agreeing with some Democratic health care demands during the government shutdown. 

Massie looks more politically vulnerable, with Trump and his allies actively recruiting a challenger to run against him and releasing internal polling showing he can be defeated. Former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who ran unsuccessfully for a seat in the Kentucky Senate last year, looks like Trump’s favored candidate. But no one has yet announced a challenge, with the filing deadline less than three months away (Jan. 9). 

Greene looks safer, but her increasing Trump criticism could change that dynamic. The filing deadline in Georgia isn’t until March 2026.

How credible a threat will Graham Platner pose to Gov. Janet Mills in Maine’s Democratic Senate primary? Under normal political circumstances, an established two-term governor would hold a commanding advantage over an oyster farmer without any elective experience in a race for the Senate. That’s especially true given that the challenger has a long paper trail of comments calling himself a communist and embracing a laundry list of radical views.

Yet Platner has parlayed his rough-and-tumble biography and anti-establishment authenticity into media buzz, and raised an impressive $4 million for the race since announcing his candidacy over the summer. 

Mills, who is 77 and the favorite of Democratic Party leaders, starts out as the favorite to win the nomination. Platner has lately been facing scrutiny over his lengthy string of social media posts where he identified as a communist, called all police “bastards” and said rural Americans are racist and stupid, among other incendiary comments. He also downplayed concerns of sexual assault in the military in online forums.

Normally, those types of views and comments would be political career-enders. But in this anti-establishment, populist moment, it’s hard to be confident in assuming the traditional rules of politics apply. After all, Mamdani has weathered scrutiny of his own radical affiliations without suffering outsized political consequences.

In addition to holding down-the-line progressive views on the economy, Platner is also uniquely hostile to Israel, even to the point of releasing a digital attack ad against the pro-Israel advocacy group AIPAC. Shortly after launching his campaign for the Senate, Platner labeled Israel’s war against Hamas a genocide. 

Mills, as governor, doesn’t have much of a foreign policy record but has spoken out against Israel boycott measures embraced by municipal leaders in Portland. But as the candidate representing more-mainstream Maine Democrats, it’s likely she will adopt a more-moderate posture when it comes to Middle East policy.

Read the rest of 'What You Should Know' here.

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U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Israel on Monday morning to discuss the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire, a day after Hamas killed two IDF soldiers and the Israeli Air Force struck in Rafah in response, Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov reports.

Breach of calm: Hamas terrorists shot an anti-tank missile at heavy machinery used by the IDF to destroy the terrorist organization’s tunnels in Rafah, killing two soldiers. The IDF suspects the attack was part of an attempt to capture soldiers, Walla! News reported. There have also been several recent attacks by Hamas, including two on Friday in which terrorists came out of tunnels and shot at IDF soldiers. 

Quiet restored: The Israeli army announced last night, “In accordance with the directive of the political echelon, and following a series of significant strikes in response to Hamas’ violations, the IDF has begun the renewed enforcement of the ceasefire. The IDF will continue to uphold the ceasefire agreement and will respond firmly to any violation of it.”

Read the full story here.

Two clashing narratives have emerged about Israel’s strike on a meeting of senior Hamas terrorists in Doha, Qatar, in September, following the release of a preview of an interview with U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on CBS’ “60 Minutes” program aired on Sunday evening. Both narratives posit that the strike hastened the arrival of President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to free the hostages and end the war. Figures close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the attack pushed an anxious Qatar, Hamas’ patron and host of its senior officials, to do more to get the terrorist organization across the finish line. Trump’s negotiators, however, presented a scenario in which the president, unhappy about the strike, pressured Israel to end the war, Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov reports.

View from U.S.: Of the Israeli strike on Doha, Witkoff said that he and Kushner, who in recent months has also played a key role in the administration’s Middle East efforts, “felt a little bit betrayed.” Kushner added, “I think [Trump] felt like the Israelis were getting a little bit out of control in what they were doing, and it was time to be very strong and stop them from doing things he thought were not in their long-term interest.”

View from Bibi's camp: Jerusalem, however, had a different version of the events, as told by Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s closest confidante, in an Israel Hayom column column by journalist Amit Segal. Dermer, Segal wrote, “links the strike to the agreement … The Qataris, it turns out, were convinced that by agreeing to host the negotiations, they had obtained immunity from Israeli strikes on their soil. From their perspective, the strike was a blatant, offensive breach of the commitment. … The Americans’ genius was to convert that negative energy into fuel to propel negotiations to their goal. ‘You want Israel to stop? Then let’s end the war.'”

Read the full story here.

The American Jewish Committee raised concerns on Friday about Zohran Mamdani’s “continued use of problematic rhetoric as it relates to Israel and Jews” and called on the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City to “change course” as he prepares for the Nov. 4 election, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports.

AJC’s argument: In a lengthy statement, the nonpartisan organization cited, among other things, Mamdani’s repeated claim that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, which the AJC called “unequivocally false and dangerous.” The charge “has not been proven in any international court” and “gives fodder to those who continue to use Israel’s self-defensive actions as an excuse to threaten and attack Jews,” the group said. The AJC also criticized Mamdani’s refusal to recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, saying that he is upholding an “unacceptable double standard” in his assessment of the region. “Israel is surrounded by Muslim countries,” the group wrote, “yet Mamdani does not continuously suggest that any of those nations should not exist as they are.”

Read the full story here.

Notable quotable: Rabbi Elliot Cosgrove of the Conservative Park Avenue Synagogue said in an address on Saturday: “Mamdani’s distinction between accepting Jews and denying a Jewish state is not merely a rhetorical sleight of hand or political naïveté — though it is to be clear both of those — his doing so is to traffic in the most dangerous of tropes.”

In recent months, Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) has stood apart from many of his Democratic colleagues in offering staunch support for Israel, openly praising President Donald Trump for finalizing a deal to free the hostages in Gaza and maintaining a hard line against New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani. Suozzi, a moderate Democrat who hails from a swing district on Long Island with a significant Jewish population, is a longtime stalwart supporter of Israel, and argued in a recent interview with Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod that maintaining bipartisanship on the issue is critical.

Trump talk: Suozzi has been among the minority of Democrats who have openly credited Trump for the ceasefire that secured the release of the remaining living hostages in Gaza last week. “We thank God and congratulate President Trump and all those who helped make the return of the hostages a reality. As we celebrate this moment, let us also pause to pray for all those who have endured so much suffering, death and destruction along the way,” Suozzi told JI last Monday, after the hostages were freed. “It’s plain on its face that the president orchestrated this and put a tremendous amount of effort into this,” he continued. “I disagree with the president on certain things, but when it comes to this issue, I'm fully aligned with him.”

Read the full interview here.

Amer Ghalib, the mayor of Hamtramck, Mich., and President Donald Trump’s nominee to be U.S. ambassador to Kuwait, is scheduled for a confirmation hearing in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a delayed step toward confirmation for a nominee whose background and past comments have come under scrutiny, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.

The latest: Ghalib will come before the committee on Thursday, at the first confirmation hearing the committee has held in more than a month. Ghalib is currently the only nominee on the agenda for that hearing. The Democratic Hamtramck mayor, who endorsed Trump in the 2024 election and helped him rally support in Michigan’s Arab and Muslim American communities, has a history of anti-Israel activity, as well as liking antisemitic posts on social media.

Read the full story here.

The Case Against Bolton: The Atlantic’s Shane Harris considers why the federal government’s legal effort against former National Security Advisor John Bolton is more likely than other cases against Trump administration critics to advance. “People I spoke with who are knowledgeable about the Bolton case — including what he allegedly did while serving in the White House in Trump’s first term, and internal deliberations over whether to charge him with mishandling classified information — say that indicting the former adviser was not an easy call. But the case, several said, is ‘righteous.’ Reading the charges, I’m inclined to agree that if its facts are accurate, the government has a strong argument. I’ve covered a lot of cases of mishandling classified information and documents. Some people who have faced charges like those Bolton does now are in prison.” [TheAtlantic]

The Dermer Difference: The Wall Street Journal’s Anat Peled profiles Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who has “played the role of Trump whisperer” in his role as a top advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Most Americans don’t know his name and he rarely speaks publicly in Israel. But he is one of the most influential American-born Israeli politicians in the nation’s history and has been key to maintaining U.S. support for the war and cutting a deal to end it largely on Israel’s terms. … Born and raised in Florida, Dermer speaks Trump’s language, say people who have worked with him. Netanyahu, in his 2022 memoir, recalled how Dermer used golf terminology when talking to Trump. ‘“Peace with the Emirates is a 5-foot putt. Peace with the Saudis is a 30-foot putt. And peace with the Palestinians is a hole-in-one through a brick wall,”’ Netanyahu recalled.” [WSJ]

Hamas to Blame: The Washington Post’s editorial board argues that Hamas “is to blame” for the ceasefire lapses that have occurred since last week. “Indeed, Hamas is so weak right now that it faces challenges to its control of Gaza and can likely cling to power only by massacring its Palestinian enemies, just as it did in 2007 following violent clashes with its political rival Fatah. Before the ink even dried on the latest ceasefire agreement, Hamas enforcers emerged from their underground dens, fresh-faced, well-fed and clad in clean uniforms. Hamas declared war on at least four Palestinian clans, several of which are thought to have been cooperating with Israel. Clips of Hamas commissars executing bound men in the middle of the street, or shooting suspected thieves in the legs, have circulated widely. … All revolutions eventually consume themselves. Unfortunately for the miserable Palestinians of Gaza, Hamas is not quite yet in its final death throes.” [WashPost]

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Authorities in Louisiana arrested a Gazan man who federal officials said lied about his participation in terrorist activities on his visa application; an unsealed FBI complaint said that Mahmoud Amin Ya’qub Al-Muhtadi, a member of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and led a group into Israel during the Oct. 7, 2023, terror attacks…

Saudi officials have discussed with U.S. officials the possibility of a defense pact similar to the one the White House recently inked with Qatar; Riyadh is pushing for the agreement to be finalized ahead of a scheduled visit to Washington next month by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman…

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump sent condolences to the Orthodox Union following the passing last week of OU Executive Vice President Rabbi Moshe Hauer, calling him a “man of deep faith, wisdom and compassion whose life reflected an unwavering devotion to the Almighty, to his family, and to the Jewish community”…

Former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) was freed from federal prison on Friday, hours after Trump announced he was commuting the former legislator’s seven-year sentence for fraud…

Ofcom, the U.K.’s communications regulator, found that a documentary that aired on the BBC and featured a teenage boy in Gaza — but did not note that the boy was the son of Hamas’ deputy minister of agriculture — was “materially misleading”...

The president-elect of the Oxford Union was ousted in a no-confidence vote weeks after leaked texts revealed that he had celebrated the killing of Turning Point USA Founder Charlie Kirk…

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who earlier this month was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday; in a readout from their call, Machado said that Iran, a “key supporter of the Maduro regime in Venezuela” additionally “backs terrorist organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis” in an alignment that “underscores the global nature of the struggle between freedom and authoritarianism”...

A Pakistani national and weapons smuggler who was apprehended by the U.S. Navy in early 2014 was sentenced to 40 years in a federal prison for his role in transporting ballistic missile parts from Iran to the Houthis in Yemen…

The Houthis detained nearly two dozen U.N. employees, including 15 international staff, during a raid on a U.N. facility in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa…

Iran hanged a man convicted of transmitting information to the Mossad; the man’s execution on Israeli espionage charges is one of at least eight in the country since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran prompted a crackdown in the Islamic Republic…

Tehran said it was no longer bound by the constraints of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, following the agreement’s expiration on Saturday…

New Zealand announced on Friday the reimposition of sanctions on Iran over what it said were repeated violations of the 2015 nuclear deal, a day prior to the agreement’s expiration on Saturday…

ALEXI J. ROSENFELD/GETTY IMAGES

Mourners grieved at a ceremony held at Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday for Bipin Joshi, a Nepalese man who was taken hostage by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, and was killed in captivity in Gaza. Joshi’s remains, which were released by the terror group last week, were flown to Nepal for burial.

DIMITRIOS KAMBOURIS/GETTY IMAGES

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