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Good Thursday morning.

In today’s Daily Kickoff, we report on how Zohran Mamdani’s supporters and staffers, as well as New York lawmakers and GOP strategists, are responding to the Queens assemblyman’s presumed win in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, and assess how Jewish Democrats are feeling about the direction of the party in the wake of Mamdani’s electoral success. We also cover President Donald Trump’s announcement of a U.S.-Iran meeting taking place next week and the Department of Justice’s continued concern that American Jews may face increased threats in the wake of the U.S. and Israeli campaign against Iran’s nuclear program. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Mike Pompeo, Danny Wolf and Yossi Cohen.

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Israel is feeling victorious after its 12-day war with Iran, which culminated in the U.S. strikes on underground nuclear sites that significantly degraded and rolled back Tehran’s nuclear program. While the country is mourning 29 civilian deaths — in addition to seven soldiers killed in Gaza this week — and thousands have lost their homes in missile strikes, nearly two-thirds of Israelis, according to a new poll, think their country won the war.

But there have been some cautionary signals about the state of Iran’s nuclear program since the fighting ended, most notably a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency report from the U.S. that suggested — with reportedly low confidence — that the bombings only set back Iran’s nuclear program by a few months. President Donald Trump, at the NATO summit in the Netherlands on Wednesday, called the DIA intelligence report, which was based on satellite imagery, “fake news” and cited a more favorable Israeli intelligence report as being more reliable. And CIA Director John Ratcliffe said Thursday that “a body of credible intelligence indicates Iran’s Nuclear Program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes.”

Further dampening the mood was Trump angrily and publicly pressuring Israel not to aggressively respond to a ceasefire violation that came within hours of a volley of missiles that killed several Israelis right before the ceasefire went into effect.

But as Israeli officials and national security experts have taken the time to assess the geopolitical landscape, the overall picture is one of significant military success. 

The Trump administration and Israeli officials have an interest in presenting the mission in Iran as successful, which may lead some to trust the intelligence leaks over their statements. However, their assessment of the DIA report as “flat-out wrong,” as the White House put it, is backed up by several experts surveyed by Jewish Insider – though most cautioned that it’s unlikely anyone knows the full extent of the damage yet.

Israel “attacked and had aerial superiority in Iran for nearly two weeks and could have continued for as long as [it] wanted, had international legitimacy and not just American support, but involvement,” IDF Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and the former head of the research division of the Israel Defense Forces’ Intelligence Directorate, said. “The change in mindset is more important than the physical damage. Iran can build a new Fordow in three or four years; they were already working on more underground facilities, but what is the point if they know that the U.S. has an unlimited number of bombs that they can drop anywhere and are willing to use them?”

In a televised message on Thursday, Iranian Supreme Leader Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised "Iran’s victory over the U.S. regime" and claimed that the "Zionist regime was practically knocked out and crushed under the blows of the Islamic Republic."

Read the rest of ‘What You Should Know’ here.

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Zohran Mamdani’s commanding performance in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary on Tuesday night underscored how the 33-year-old assemblyman, a democratic socialist from Queens, successfully built a coalition extending well beyond his far-left base of support. But while his focus on affordability resonated with many voters across the five boroughs who rejected former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Mamdani’s all-but-certain victory has also empowered some of his more extreme supporters to espouse incendiary rhetoric that his critics say has helped fuel a rise in antisemitism in the city, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports. 

Online incitement: In celebrating the presumed upset by a candidate with a long record of anti-Israel activism, many of Mamdani’s allies on the far left have promoted calls to “globalize the intifada,” a motto he had refused to condemn in the final stretch of the campaign, while attacking “Zionists” and using threatening language that has raised alarms within the city’s mainstream Jewish community. “Consider the intifada globalized,” one prominent Mamdani supporter wrote on social media, using a phrase that critics interpret as violent incitement against Jews — and echoing a number of comments he made invoking similar language in the wake of the bitterly contested primary. “The last 24 hours will be an inflection point in history for Zionism and the entity,” said another backer with a relatively sizable following on social media. “Tonight we celebrate,” a like-minded Mamdani enthusiast added in an ominously worded post. “Tomorrow we get the lists from Zohran and the round up begins.”

Read the full story here.

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Many Jewish Democrats are questioning where their party is heading after a dynamic young socialist with radical anti-Israel politics is on track to become mayor of the largest city in America, which has the largest Jewish population of any city in the world. Coupled with Democrats’ reluctance to offer support for President Donald Trump’s targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, which drew support from major Jewish groups, Zohran Mamdani’s ascension has some pro-Israel Democrats concerned about the future of their party, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports.

Good ol’ days: “[President Joe] Biden was elected running a campaign in 2020 premised on combating antisemitism. That was the animating feature that got him into the race. So the politics of this have really moved,” said a former White House official. “This is all about language and people using their microphones, and the fact that someone could feel empowered to double down on these ideas and win a mayoral race in New York City, that doesn’t happen by accident. It takes years of moving the goalposts on this language, on what it means to be antisemitic in America in 2025.” Put more bluntly by another senior Biden administration official: “I feel like a person without a party.”

Read the full story here.

Toeing the waters: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) congratulated Mamdani on Wednesday for his presumed victory in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary but stopped short of endorsing the far-left state assemblyman’s candidacy in the general election, Jewish Insider’s Emily Jacobs reports.

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Republican campaign operatives say they intend to tie vulnerable Democratic candidates to Zohran Mamdani, the presumed winner of New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, over his far-left policies, Jewish Insider’s Emily Jacobs reports. GOP operatives told JI they expect Mamdani to prominently feature in future ads and broader messaging targeting Democrats nationwide.

Never look a gift horse in the mouth: “From a political standpoint, this takes the party’s most polarizing progressive and puts them on a national stage. It’s a big opportunity for us. There's gonna be massive ramifications on the national level. It's a real gift for Republicans,” a longtime GOP campaign operative told JI.

Read the full story here.

Keeping distance: Other New York lawmakers, including Reps. Laura Gillen (D-NY), Tom Suozzi (D-NY) and George Latimer (D-NY), declined to support Mamdani, citing ongoing concerns about his ideological record. Both Gillen and Suozzi represent Long Island-based swing districts, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.

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President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the U.S. and Iran will hold a meeting next week, but said that he doesn’t think reaching a nuclear agreement with the country is necessary in the aftermath of U.S. strikes on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities, Jewish Insider’s Danielle Cohen reports. Speaking at a press conference before leaving the NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump said, in response to a question asking if he was interested in restarting nuclear negotiations with Iran, “I’m not.”

Done and dusted: “The way I look at it, they fought, the war is done,” Trump continued. “And you know, I could get a statement that they’re not going to go nuclear. We’re probably going to ask for that, but they’re not going to be doing it anyway.” He said he had asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to draw up a “little agreement for them to sign, because I think we can get him to sign it. I don’t think it’s necessary.”

Read the full story here.

Case closed: Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter told a gathering of American Jewish leaders on Wednesday that the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz had “destroyed” the sites, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.

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Attorney General Pam Bondi said on Wednesday that the Department of Justice was keeping a close eye on potential homeland threats to the Jewish community that may be motivated by the American and Israeli military strikes on Iran. Bondi’s comments followed recent administration warnings about potential Iran-linked “sleeper cells” in the country or radicalization of individuals domestically by Shia or Iranian propaganda, Jewish Insider’s Emily Jacobs and Marc Rod report. 

What she said: Bondi, asked by Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) about potential threats to the Jewish community, highlighted the Capital Jewish Museum attack, the firebombing of activists at a hostage-awareness march in Boulder, Colo., and the arson attack on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s home as a series of connected incidents. “We are all over these cases, working hand in hand with the FBI, with Homeland Security, all of our agencies are working so well together to try to combat this throughout our country,” Bondi said. “Without getting into detail in this setting, Iran, of course, is a threat. They have been a threat, and they always will be a threat to our country. And we are working hand in hand with all of our agencies to protect Americans and to keep us safe. We have a 24/7 command center at the FBI set up for situations just like you described, senator.”

Read the full story here.

Better protection: Bob Milgrim, father of Sarah Milgrim, one of the two Israeli Embassy employee who were killed last month at the Capital Jewish Museum, told a group of Jewish leaders on Wednesday that better security at the event where his daughter was slain might have prevented the attack, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.

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Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo praised President Donald Trump on Wednesday for his decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend, pushing back on criticism from the isolationist right that the attack would embroil the U.S. in another prolonged conflict in the Middle East, Jewish Insider’s Emily Jacobs reports. Pompeo appeared at the World Affairs Council of New Hampshire, a part of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, for “Building Back American Deterrence and Strength in a Dangerous World.” 

What he said: The former secretary of state said during a moderated conversation with Tim Horgan, WACNH’s executive director, that the U.S. strikes served to prevent war rather than cause it. “Make no mistake, President Trump’s decision to act ... delivered more security for our friends in Israel and made the world safer. America reasserted its global leadership. We didn’t send the 82nd [bomb squadron] — we sent America,” Pompeo said. Pompeo said that he believed the strikes by Israel and the U.S. on Iran’s nuclear facilities had restored deterrence in regard to both Iran and North Korea. "I do know this: [North Korean] Chairman Kim [Jong Un] is sitting a little less comfortably on his throne today," he said.

Read the full story here.

Going to Extremes: In the New York Post, Anti-Defamation League CEO Jonathan Greenblatt raises concerns about the ‘horseshoe theory’ that has united the far right and far left around the U.S. strikes on Iran. “From radical-left activists claiming America lives ‘under a Zionist regime’ to far-right conspiracy theorists pushing tropes about Jewish foreign-policy manipulation, the extremes of American politics are perverting healthy democratic debate and corrupting legitimate policy disagreements about foreign intervention. … Today, as Americans debate Trump’s military action against Iran, the same dangerous patterns are emerging. Whether dressed up as ‘anti-Zionism’ or presented as high-minded foreign policy analysis in coded language, legitimate policy debates have become vehicles to spread antisemitism.” [NYPost]

A Striking Change: In The Wall Street Journal, Elliott Abrams considers the shift in American policy and the U.S. approach to the Middle East over the four decades between Israel’s attack on Iraq’s Osirak reactor and this month’s joint Israeli-American efforts to neutralize the Iranian nuclear program. “So the U.S. moved in 26 years from condemnation of a surprise Israeli attack on the Iraqi reactor to knowledge and effective approval of the Israeli strike on the Syrian reactor. Another 18 years later, the U.S. actually joined the effort to destroy the Iranian nuclear program. What explains this progression? Relations between the U.S. and Israel grew closer in those four decades, except in the Obama years. American officials and analysts more broadly understood Israel’s value as an ally. U.S. aid budgets grew. Israel joined the U.S. Central Command and began to coordinate through it with Arab armed forces. It became increasingly obvious that Iran was a deadly enemy of the U.S. and the greatest state supporter of terrorism, and its growing alignment with Russia and China made it more dangerous.” [WSJ]

It’s the Economy, Stupid — Again: In The Washington Post, James Carville and Stan Greenberg predict an “earthquake” in the 2026 midterm elections as focus shifts to voters’ economic concerns. “In primaries this month in New Jersey and Virginia, Democratic voters nominated moderate and progressive candidates for governor with broad appeal. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, a retired Navy helicopter pilot, and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, a former CIA officer, each flipped Republican-held House seats in 2018. They made affordability their top priority. … In the past two years, no mainstream statewide candidate has lost to a challenger from the Bernie Sanders wing. In fact, two members of ‘the Squad’ — Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri — lost their House seats in Democratic primaries last year. The reason is the great majority of Democratic voters hate the activist, elite agenda that dominated the Democratic Party under President Joe Biden.” [WashPost]

In the (Think) Tank: In Politico, Tevi Troy considers the challenges facing newly created Democratic think tanks at a time when the party appears reluctant to embrace new thinking. “Think tank history tells us that this latest iteration can play an important role in the Democratic Party’s climb back to relevance. But the institution only works if a party is aiming for a reboot or a new direction. And it’s not clear Democrats are ready or willing to do that. … New think tanks arising out of election defeats are only useful if they can create a permission structure for changing what isn’t working. It’s not the 501(C)(3) tax status of think tanks that have enabled them to help parties recover from crushing defeats in the past. It’s the willingness to rethink, reexamine and challenge the accepted precepts of a party that has been failing to appeal to voters.” [Politico]

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GABBY DEUTCH

Rabbi Levi Shemtov, executive vice president of American Friends of Lubavitch (Chabad), hung a mezuzah on the doorpost at the grand opening on Wednesday of Oro Nami, a new kosher sushi restaurant in the West End neighborhood of Washington.

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First Jewish federal cabinet member to serve in post-WWII Germany, she is minister for education, family, seniors, women and youth, Karin Prien turns 60...

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