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Good Tuesday morning.

In today’s Daily Kickoff, we report on Iran’s violation of a ceasefire with Israel hours after it went into effect, and speak to GOP lawmakers about their perspectives on the ceasefire. We interview experts about the state of Iran’s nuclear program following Israeli and American strikes against its facilities and cover efforts by House and Senate Democrats to bring forward votes on war powers resolutions that aim to constrain the administration from taking any further military action against Iran. We also report on how Jewish and pro-Israel activists are responding to the ascent of Zohran Mamdani in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Ambassador Yechiel Leiter, Rep. Carlos Gimenez and Yotam Polizer.

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It’s not an overstatement to suggest that the future direction of the Democratic Party could well be decided tonight in New York City, where a far-left, anti-Israel assemblyman from Queens, Zohran Mamdani, has a shot to win the Democratic nomination against presumed favorite, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Most public and internal campaign polls show Cuomo ahead, but a new Emerson College poll released Monday showed Mamdani in the lead for the first time, sending shockwaves through the New York City Jewish community — and beyond.

The notion that a candidate who pointedly declined to condemn “globalize the intifada” rhetoric in the city with the largest Jewish population outside of Israel could be running competitively would have been unthinkable not long ago.

For a party desperately seeking to moderate in the aftermath of brutal defeats in 2024, the prospect of having a socialist mayor for the next four years in the largest city in the country would be an undeniable setback, threatening to reverberate beyond Gotham’s borders.

Mamdani’s rise has particularly fueled anxiety among Jewish leaders — as his hostile views toward Israel have hardly dented his standing in the race. Even if he doesn’t win the nomination, Jewish Democrats uncomfortable with his anti-Israel rhetoric and alleged insensitivity to rising antisemitism fear his surging campaign could end up causing them to rethink their long-standing affiliation with the Democratic Party.

One prominent New York-based Democratic strategist told JI he expected some Jews to relocate to Florida or Texas if Mamdani becomes mayor.

Read the rest of ‘What You Should Know’ here.

IDF

Iran violated a ceasefire with Israel hours after it began on Tuesday, with Israel vowing “powerful strikes” in response, Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov reports. The IDF intercepted two missiles from Iran at about 10:30 a.m. No injuries were reported. Despite residents of northern Israel reporting interceptions, Iran denied firing the missiles.

Retaliation order: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he "instructed the IDF to respond forcefully to the violation of the ceasefire by Iran with powerful strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran." Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, the IDF chief of staff, said that “in light of the severe violation of the ceasefire carried out by the Iranian regime, we will respond with force." A senior Israeli diplomatic source said that "Iran violated the ceasefire — and it will pay." In the hours before the ceasefire was meant to go into effect at 7 a.m., Iran launched 20 missiles in a series of barrages at Israel, killing four in a direct hit on a building in Beersheba. 

Read the full story here.

Outfoxed: When Fox News anchor Bret Baier scored a primetime interview with Vice President JD Vance for Monday evening, he likely hoped that Vance would have news to share with him. Instead, Baier was the one to break the news to Vance that President Donald Trump had brokered a ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran, which Trump announced in a post on Truth Social moments before Vance went on air, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports. 

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Republicans publicly lauded President Donald Trump’s ceasefire between Israel and Iran as an example of his “peace through strength” approach to foreign policy, Jewish Insider’s Emily Jacobs and Marc Rod report. “This is a war that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will,” the president wrote on his Truth Social platform, alluding to criticism that he was dragging the U.S. into another prolonged Middle East conflict. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) told reporters on Monday evening that the news of a ceasefire was “incredible,” saying, “This is what peace through strength looks like.”

Victory lap: Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) told JI that he’s “very much pleased” by the news. Pressed on whether he’s concerned that the deal could give Iran breathing room to rebuild its nuclear program, Kennedy said, “There’s this rule when you practice law, when you’ve won for the judge, you shut up. OK? You don't keep talking. It's a ceasefire. We won. We ought to take our victory.” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) said he viewed the ceasefire as a “very good development.” He told reporters, “I think the question now is how do we get to a place where we can get to a deterrence posture, a containment posture for Iran for the long haul, that will keep them in their box, keep Iran in their box, but will also allow us, the United States, to draw down our troop and military presence in the region.”

Still wary: Some national security-focused House Democrats highlighted the risks of Trump’s actions if they did not successfully eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. “If you take this shot, you have to land it, and it’s a very hard shot to land,” Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) told JI, arguing that the situation highlighted the need for Congress to assert a role in war-making authorities. Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT), the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, emphasized that the success of the strikes is very uncertain at this point, and that he would be “most worried about an Iran that goes silent right now.” He said, “If Iran goes silent right now, what are they doing? Are they actually developing something?”

Read the full story here with additional comments from Sens. Eric Schmitt (R-MO), Mike Rounds (R-SD), Jim Banks (R-IN), Bernie Moreno (R-OH), Katie Britt (R-AL), James Lankford (R-OK), Roger Wicker (R-MS), John Fetterman (D-PA), Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Brad Schneider (D-IL), Jerry Nadler (D-NY) and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Dana Stroul.

Earlier Monday: Iran launched several missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar, Jewish Insider’s Jake Schlanger reports. 

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According to President Donald Trump, Iran’s nuclear program is finito. “Obliteration is an accurate term!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Sunday. “Monumental damage was done to all nuclear sites in Iran.” He said on Monday that the three sites hit by U.S. strikes on Sunday morning “were totally destroyed, and everyone knows it.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Monday that the U.S. “took out” Iran’s nuclear program over the weekend. Nuclear experts aren’t as confident. What, exactly, remains of Iran’s nuclear program — which, just weeks ago, Israeli officials said was on the precipice of being able to produce a nuclear weapon — remains an open question, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports.

Uncertainty lingers: Experts agree that the combination of Israel’s strikes that began a week and a half ago, aided by the U.S. military’s intervention on Sunday, has done significant damage to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. But uncertainty lingers about the status of the enriched uranium that had been housed at Fordow, the major Iranian nuclear facility hidden under a mountain that the U.S. struck with bunker-buster bombs this weekend. Reports suggest Tehran may have removed the nuclear materials from Fordow and hidden them elsewhere in Iran. “I think that we can assume that damage was done, but it's going to take a long time, and we may never know entirely the extent of the damage,” said Tressa Guenov, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who dealt with international security affairs at the Pentagon in the Biden administration. Iran’s claim that it moved the uranium “could be real, or it could be a strategy to keep things ambiguous,” she added. 

Read the full story here.

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House and Senate Democrats are pushing ahead with efforts to bring forward votes this week in the House and Senate on resolutions that aim to constrain the administration from taking any further military action against Iran in spite of the surprise ceasefire between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports. Though Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Ro Khanna (D-CA) said they’re pulling back on efforts to pass a bipartisan war powers resolution, a group of top House Democrats introduced an alternative measure, which aims to address concerns that Massie’s resolution would have blocked U.S. support for Israel’s defense.

Democrats’ positioning: Democratic staffers told JI that Democrats have largely unified publicly against the administration’s strikes on Iran — even some who support them privately — due to a perception that the move was a political weak point for Trump, concerns about being recorded as backing the strikes if they prompted another protracted regional war and a deep level of distrust with the Trump administration and its failure to present Congress with information about the strikes. 

Read the full story here.

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Georgetown University’s administration said it was “appalled” after a prominent faculty member called for Iran to conduct a “symbolic strike” on a U.S. military base in a social media post on Sunday. “We are reviewing this matter to see if further action is warranted,” a spokesperson for the university told Jewish Insider’s Haley Cohen on Monday, noting that the administration is “appalled” by the since-deleted tweet by Jonathan Brown, a tenured professor and chair of the university’s Department of Arabic and Islamic Studies and Alwaleed bin Talal Chair of Islamic Civilization in the School of Foreign Service, who has a history of spreading anti-Israel vitriol.

What he wrote: On Sunday, one day after the U.S. struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, Brown tweeted: “I’m not an expert, but I assume Iran could still get a bomb easily. I hope Iran does some symbolic strike on a base, then everyone stops.” 

And then: Brown, who is the son-in-law of convicted terror supporter Sami Al-Arian and has gone on several X tirades since the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attacks slamming Israel, deleted his tweet on Monday. “I deleted my previous tweet because a lot of people were interpreting it as a call for violence,” Brown wrote. “That’s not what I intended. I have two immediate family members in the US military who’ve served abroad and wouldn’t want any harm to befall American soldiers… or anyone!” 

Read the full story here.

Off base: As Iran targeted Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in retaliation for the U.S. airstrikes against the Iranian nuclear program, Tucker Carlson claimed on his podcast that the air base, “that they [Qatar] don’t need at all,” exists to protect Israel and Qatar is hosting it “to be nice,” Jewish Insider’s Jake Schlanger reports.

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As the closely watched Democratic primary for mayor of New York City wraps up today, many Jewish and pro-Israel activists are now confronting a mounting sense of alarm that Zohran Mamdani, a far-left assemblyman from Queens, could win the nomination, propelling a fierce critic of Israel to the general election — and, potentially, Gracie Mansion. In a city home to the largest Jewish community outside of Israel, Mamdani’s rise has fueled anxiety among Jewish leaders — particularly as his hostile positions toward Israel have hardly dented his standing in a competitive race that has narrowed to a two-person matchup. Even if Mamdani does not win, Jewish Democrats uncomfortable with his strident criticism of Israel and alleged insensitivity to rising antisemitism fear that his surging campaign could end up alienating Jewish voters who have long called the party home, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports.

If he wins: “The Jewish community is going to face a real shock if Mamdani gets the nomination,” Mitchell Moss, an urban policy professor at New York University who is backing Cuomo, said in an interview with JI on Monday. “A lot of people have come to realize that anti-Israel sentiment has metastasized into antisemitism.” Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic strategist, predicted a Mamdani victory could end up pushing “more Jews nationally into the Republican column” and said Orthodox Jews might choose to relocate to South Florida and New Jersey. “Whether he wins or loses,” Sheinkopf said, the contours of the race have sent a concerning message that he characterized as “Jews don’t matter.”

Read the full story here.

The Donald Doctrine: In The Atlantic, Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg considers President Donald Trump’s legacy in the Middle East. “Until the arrival of Donald Trump, no American president believed that the Iranian threat should be ended — to borrow from the language of the campus anti-Israel movement — by any means necessary. Trump may yet be remembered as a hypocrite who promised a clean American exit from the Middle East but found his presidency — like those of Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan before him — hopelessly trapped in Iranian quicksand… But he could also be remembered as the president who averted a second Holocaust.” [TheAtlantic]

The Fall of Tehran?: In The Free Press, Eli Lake considers the implications of regime change in Iran. “This kind of talk has gone out of favor in Washington in recent years. The fall of dictatorships in Libya and Iraq led to confessional sectarian war. The fall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt led briefly to a Muslim Brotherhood government in Cairo before a military coup. But in Iran, a country that has experienced democratic uprisings five times since 2017, it now seems like a real possibility. … At the heart of the present uncertainty is a paradox. On the one hand, the Iranian regime is wobbling. On the other, the organic Iranian opposition has been targeted with ruthless lethality by security services that have proven efficient in targeting dissidents. Since 2009 and the Green Movement against the stolen presidential election that year, internal opposition leaders have been killed, exiled, or jailed.” [FreePress]

Falling on Deaf Ears: Commentary’s Seth Mandel looks at the support for tyrannical regimes by some Western progressives, even as dissidents from those regimes advocate otherwise. “Iranian actress and activist Nazanin Boniadi has issued a heartfelt plea to the Western protest class that I fear will fall on deaf ears. Just as the Palestinians who have made it out of Gaza and can speak freely tried, in vain, to convince the anti-Zionist demonstrators to not lionize Hamas, so are Iranian democracy activists learning about the Western fascination and identification with tyrannical regimes. … If the Iranians are ever freed from the occupying force in Tehran, it will be against the wishes of the Western activist class, which is fully invested in the status quo of tyranny anywhere it can be found. And they will almost certainly not be dissuaded by those who actually have to live under those regimes.” [Commentary]

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The New York Times examines how Iranian officials have reacted to the strikes against their nuclear and military facilities, from insisting on normalcy to projecting false strength to cautioning restraint…

The Wall Street Journal looks at Russia’s reluctance to acquiesce to Iranian requests for assistance in its strikes against Israel and the U.S.…

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities — but before Iran attacked U.S. bases and President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire — found that only 36% of respondents (13% of Democrats and 69% of Republicans) said they supported the strikes, while 45% opposed them… 

Retired NASA astronaut Terry Virts, a Democrat, announced his campaign to run against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) on Monday with a video calling out Trump’s “chaos” as well as a lack of leadership in the Democratic Party and its failure to learn from the 2024 election… 

The British government announced plans to sanction the anti-Israel activist group Palestine Action following incidents in which members of the group broke into a British air base and damaged military planes and vandalized one of Trump’s golf courses in Scotland…

The 21 members of the House Jewish Caucus — all Democrats — pressed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in a letter sent on Tuesday expressing concerns about Kingsley Wilson, the recently promoted Pentagon press secretary with a history of antisemitic and otherwise controversial comments, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod scoops…

Top Senate leaders introduced a bipartisan resolution on Monday condemning the recent antisemitic attacks in Washington and Boulder, Colo., Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports…

Democrat Jeff Grazyel, a former Morris Township mayor, announced plans to run for Rep. Mikie Sherrill's (D-NJ) congressional seat if she wins the New Jersey governor's race. Grazyel is extensively involved in his local Jewish community, including as a member of the local Jewish Community Relations Council and Jewish federation and his synagogue board…

Former Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff is joining the University of Southern California’s Gould School of Law as a distinguished visiting professor…

A New Jersey Assembly committee voted to table a proposed bill that would have adopted the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition of antisemitism…

eJewishPhilanthropy’s Jay Deitcher interviews Yotam Polizer, the CEO of IsraAid, on the organization’s pivot from providing humanitarian aid abroad to focusing domestically on Israelis in need in the aftermath of Oct. 7 and the Iranian missile attacks…

The New York Times interviews former talk show host Maury Povich, who launched a podcast earlier this year after hosting more than 30 seasons of his eponymous show…

The New York Times reviews the new documentary “Marlee Matlin: Not Alone Anymore,” about the actress’ rise to stardom and representation of the deaf community in Hollywood…

Cosmochemist Edward Anders, who as a child survived the Holocaust and in his retirement wrote a book about the Jews from his Latvian town who did not, died at 98…

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U.K. Foreign Minister David Lammy (left) met with former Israeli hostage Eli Sharabi in London on Monday. Sharabi’s wife and two daughters, who were murdered by Hamas terrorists on Oct. 7, were British nationals.

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